BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. Gold, oil, and inflation are the three key themes of the month for the CIS-4 (Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Armenia), Trend reports citing the Netherlands-based ING company.
“The last couple of months have shown that Uzbekistan continues to benefit from strong gold prices, while Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan face renewed pressure from oil market dynamics,” reads the latest report issued by ING.
The company analysts note that the temporary spike in oil prices linked to Middle East tensions has faded, with OPEC+ now guiding for a faster-than-expected increase in supply.
“The group plans to boost output by over half a million barrels per day in August, with similar moves likely in September. This shift is putting renewed pressure on the external balances of oil exporters. Kazakhstan is already experiencing renewed depreciation of the tenge, while Azerbaijan’s pegged currency conceals a shrinking trade surplus, which has narrowed to $2.7bn over the 12 months ending in May 2025, down from $5.5bn in 2024 and $16.6bn in 2023. Based on our estimates, each $1/bbl of oil prices translates into approximately $570m in annualised fuel export revenues for Kazakhstan and $350m for Azerbaijan,” said the company.
ING believes that for Azerbaijan, the deterioration in the trade balance may be offset by stronger capital inflows.
“Moody’s recently followed Fitch in assigning the country an investment-grade rating of Baa3, maintaining a positive outlook and citing improved fiscal and external buffers,” said ING.
