Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 28 / Trend , A.Badalova/
Analysts from on of the world's largest banks - American JPMorgan - believe that the upcoming OPEC meeting in September will not change the quota for oil production. They believe the current oil prices are quite satisfactory.
"OPEC is a slave to oil prices, but it does not need to stabilize them in the short term," the analysts said.
The OPEC meeting, where the cartel members will discuss volumes of production, will be held in Vienna on Sept. 9. This week Iraqi Oil Minister, Hussein al-Shahristani, has said that it is not necessary to make a decision to increase oil production at the forthcoming meeting. He said the world oil demand will increase due to the economic recovery in the near future. Venezuelan Oil Minister, Rafael Ramirez, who is also opposed to raising the production volumes, believes that the world oil reserves today are too high.
According to International Energy Agency, the volume of OPEC oil production in July decreased by 100,000 barrels and was 28.64 million barrels per day. Oil production from 11 of the cartel's members, which did not include Iraq, fell by 120,000 barrels and was 26.12 million barrels per day, which is 1.28 million barrels per day above the quota.
The U.S. State Energy Information Agency (EIA) believes that a combination of high oil prices and the OPEC not fulfilling the quota will lead to an increase in the cartel's oil production by late 2009, which will continue until prices on world markets sharply decrease. The EIA predicts the volume of OPEC oil production will be 29.05 million barrels per day in 2009. In 2010, the EIA expects a 0.23-million-barrel per day decline in the OPEC supply - to 28.82 million barrels per day.
The JPMorgan analysts say that if oil prices make a sharp drop, the cartel will consider reducing production quotas, which are likely to be discussed in December.
Despite the optimistic economic indicators, JPMorgan forecasts on oil prices in the fourth quarter remain below their current level.
As a result of an auction on Aug. 27 at the New York Stock Exchange, the price of WTI crude for October delivery rose by $1.06 and was $72.49 per barrel. The October contract on Brent at the London Stock Exchange rose by $0.86 and was $72.51 per barrel.
According to the JPMorgan analysts, the average price of WTI in 2009 will amount to $59.03 per barrel, and in 2010 it will be $67.5. The average price of Brent in 2009, JPMorgan forecasts at $60.66 per barrel and in 2010 it will be $68.75 per barrel.
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