BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 14. Kazakhstan's real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026, accelerating to 4.8% in 2027 before moderating to 4.5% in 2028, according to the latest forecasts by ING Group.
Data from ING's report shows that quarterly GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, rising to 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
Growth is projected to gradually slow thereafter, reaching 5% in the second quarter of 2027, 4.5% in the third quarter, and 4% in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, preliminary data from Kazakhstan's Bureau of National Statistics shows that the country's real GDP grew by 4.5% in January-October 2026, up 0.3 percentage points from the growth recorded in January-September.
The non-resource sector was the main contributor to economic growth, expanding by an estimated 5.6%, while industrial output increased by 3.5%.
Manufacturing growth accelerated to 9.3% in January-October 2026, compared to 8.6% in the first nine months of the year.
Among manufacturing industries, the strongest growth was recorded in pharmaceuticals, which expanded by 50.9%. The production of fabricated metal products increased by 30.4%, machinery manufacturing by 22.2%, the chemical industry by 21.9%, rubber and plastic products by 18.1%, food production by 13%, and construction materials by 5.4%.
Other sectors also recorded growth, with construction expanding by 13.1%, transportation and warehousing by 7.5%, trade by 6.2%, agriculture by 5.2%, and information and communications by 4.9%.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kazakhstan's GDP is expected to reach nearly $398 billion by the end of 2026. The Fund projects the country's economy to grow by 4.4% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027.
