BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 9. Non-OPEC liquid supply is poised to increase by 7 mb/d, rising from 65.8 mb/d in 2022 to 72.7 mb/d by 2028, Trend reports.
While concerns persist about the adequacy of upstream investments, a substantial lineup of upstream projects is in progress, many of which were initiated in recent years and are scheduled to come online in the medium term, OPEC said in its recent outlook.
Additionally, US tight oil will remain a prominent contributor to medium-term supply growth, albeit at a decelerated pace. Other nations like Brazil, Guyana, and, to a lesser extent, Canada, Qatar, Norway, Kazakhstan, and Argentina will also make significant contributions to liquid supply.
Conversely, Russian liquid supply is anticipated to decline in the medium term, and mature producers such as Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Colombia are also expected to experience reduced output.
According to OPEC, once US tight oil reaches its peak around 2030, consequently affecting US liquid supply, total non-OPEC liquid supply will likely reach its peak shortly thereafter, at approximately 73.5 mb/d. By 2045, this supply is projected to decrease to 69.9 mb/d.
This decline can be attributed to reductions in output from the US and other producers like Norway, Mexico, Colombia, the UK, and China, among others. However, this decrease will not fully offset the continued growth in liquid supply from Canada, Guyana, Argentina, Brazil, and Kazakhstan.
Non-crude liquids, which include NGLs (Natural Gas Liquids), biofuels, and other sources, will continue to grow in the long term even after crude oil production from non-OPEC producers reaches its peak, the bloc added.
