BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 15. The share of the non-oil and gas sector in Azerbaijan's state budget revenues is projected to increase to 60.6% in 2027, while the share of oil and gas revenues is expected to decline to 39.4%, according to the opinion issued by the Chamber of Accounts on the draft law "On the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2027."
According to the document, Azerbaijan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 6.9 billion manat ($4.06 billion), or 5.1%, compared to the current year, reaching 141 billion manat ($82.95 billion) in 2027. GDP in the non-oil and gas sector is projected to grow by 7.4 billion manat ($4.35 billion), or 7.2%, to 109.1 billion manat ($64.16 billion).
According to the Chamber of Accounts' analysis, the higher growth rate of economic activity in the non-oil and gas sector will also positively affect state budget revenues from this sector.
Specifically, state budget revenues are projected to reach 39.25 billion manat ($23.09 billion) in 2027, up 645 million manat ($379.4 million), or 1.7%, compared to the 2026 forecast.
The role of non-oil and gas sources in the revenue structure is expected to increase. Non-oil and gas revenues are projected to amount to 23.77 billion manat ($13.98 billion), up 1.6 billion manat ($941.2 million), or 7.2%, compared to this year's forecast. As a result, their share of total state budget revenues is expected to rise from 57.4% in 2026 to 60.6% in 2027.
Meanwhile, oil and gas revenues are projected to decline. In 2027, state budget receipts from this source are expected to amount to 15.48 billion manat ($9.11 billion), down 955 million manat ($561.8 million), or 5.8%, compared to the 2026 forecast. Consequently, their share in total state budget revenues is expected to fall from 42.6% to 39.4%.
The Chamber of Accounts attributed one of the main reasons for the decline in oil and gas revenues to lower projected transfers from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan to the state budget compared to the previous year.
State budget revenues as a share of GDP to decline
Another point highlighted in the opinion is the projected decline in the ratio of state budget revenues to GDP.
Specifically, the share of state budget revenues in GDP is projected to decrease by 1 percentage point compared to the current year, reaching 27.8% in 2027. The main reason is that nominal GDP is expected to grow faster than state budget revenues.
For comparison, while GDP is projected to increase by 5.1% in 2027, state budget revenues are expected to grow by 1.7%.
At the same time, non-oil and gas revenues as a share of GDP in the respective sector are projected to remain stable at 21.8%.
According to the report, state budget revenues amounted to 35.24 billion manat ($20.73 billion) in 2023, 37.16 billion manat ($21.86 billion) in 2024, and 39.18 billion manat ($23.05 billion) in 2025. This figure is projected at 38.61 billion manat ($22.71 billion) for 2026 and 39.25 billion manat ($23.09 billion) for 2027.
Meanwhile, GDP in the non-oil and gas sector is expected to increase from 77.66 billion manat ($45.68 billion) in 2023 to 109.1 billion manat ($64.16 billion) in 2027.
The 2027 projections indicate that the non-oil and gas sector will play an increasingly significant role in generating state budget revenues, while the share of oil and gas revenues in total budget receipts is expected to decline.
