BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 14. Azerbaijani gas creates new opportunities for Europe's energy security, US analyst Irina Tsukerman told Trend.
She said that Azerbaijan has become an important energy partner for European countries seeking reliable gas sources following the disruption of traditional energy supply ties, particularly cooperation with Russia.
According to her, the Southern Gas Corridor provides European consumers with access to Caspian gas via Georgia and Türkiye. Gas supplies reach as far as Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria.
"For governments concerned about potential future supply disruptions and price volatility, Azerbaijan represents an established, reliable source of imports that can be expanded through additional investment.
The summit held in Dublin offered President Ilham Aliyev the opportunity to discuss energy cooperation directly with European leaders. Europe's concerns regarding energy security are no longer limited to the war in Ukraine.
Instability surrounding Iran, threats to international shipping, and uncertainty regarding US foreign policy have heightened Europe's interest in energy corridors that bypass vulnerable maritime routes. In this regard, Azerbaijan's overland connections via Türkiye are of particular importance, as gas transported through the Southern Gas Corridor does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz," emphasized Tsukerman.
She added that European nations also recognize that increasing exports of Azerbaijani gas entails commercial commitments. In 2022, the European Union and Azerbaijan reached an agreement to increase the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor to at least 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027.
"To achieve this goal, it's essential to secure additional production, expand pipelines, and conclude long-term gas purchase agreements. European buyers must provide sufficient assurances that the investments made today will remain commercially viable, even in the context of the EU's energy transition policy," she noted.
Tsukerman also highlighted President Ilham Aliyev's announcement, made during a summit in Dublin, that Azerbaijan's gas supplies to the European Union have risen from approximately 8 billion cubic meters to 13 billion cubic meters following the 2022 energy partnership agreement.
"Although transmission capacity towards Greece and Italy has been increased from 10 billion to 11.2 billion cubic meters, the existing pipeline network is operating at full capacity. This situation creates a clear commercial interest for European governments to engage in discussions with Baku regarding new production projects and additional pipeline capacity.
The significance of Azerbaijani gas for Europe varies by country. Italy is one of the primary destinations. Bulgaria, Greece, and several countries in Central and South-Eastern Europe are interested in Azerbaijani gas as a means to reduce their dependence on individual suppliers. Germany and Austria have also begun purchasing Azerbaijani gas as of 2026.
For relatively smaller European markets, such additional volumes can strengthen their negotiating position with other suppliers and provide greater flexibility in the event of potential supply disruptions," the analyst noted.
She also said that competition between pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplied from the US is intensifying.
"LNG offers flexibility to European buyers, but its price depends on international demand and shipping conditions. In contrast, Azerbaijani gas, secured through long-term, commercially viable contracts, can provide a more predictable supply.
The issue of financing energy infrastructure remains unresolved. European policymakers face pressure to meet climate commitments. At the same time, investors need to recoup the substantial costs incurred in expanding gas production and pipeline networks. Unless buyers commit to purchasing additional gas volumes, companies will have limited incentives to invest in major expansion projects," Tsukerman said.
She also emphasized that Azerbaijan's role in the energy sector is not limited to natural gas. According to her, Baku is developing solar and wind energy projects and is also discussing the export of electricity through the Black Sea submarine power cable project, which is intended to connect Azerbaijan and Georgia with Romania and Hungary.
"European partners are showing interest in the possibility of importing electricity generated in the Caspian region. However, the implementation of such a project would require significant investments and agreements regarding transmission capacity," the analyst remarked.
She added that the strategic partnership declaration signed in Dublin, involving UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, also provides a new direction for energy cooperation. In particular, the long-standing experience of UK companies, such as bp, in Azerbaijan could contribute to further investment and the development of renewable energy technologies.
"Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure operates within a complex security environment. It's important to protect the pipelines that traverse the South Caucasus and Türkiye from the risks of sabotage and regional conflict.
The normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia can increase confidence and open up new opportunities for the development of regional infrastructure. To this end, it's essential for both governments to implement the agreements reached," Tsukerman explained.
According to her, the next phase of energy cooperation between Azerbaijan and Europe will depend primarily on decisions made by European governments and commercial buyers.
"Azerbaijan has identified opportunities to increase production, while European countries have expressed interest in additional supplies. The key topics for upcoming discussions will include long-term contracts, financing mechanisms, and the expansion of pipeline infrastructure. Ultimately, these decisions will determine the volume of Azerbaijani energy that reaches European consumers in the coming years," the analyst concluded.
