BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Brent crude prices are expected to average $82.3 per barrel (b) in 2024, down by $3.1/b from previous forecasts, and $77.1/b in 2025, a $1.4/b reduction, Trend reports via the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
The revision follows a $4.4/b drop in August prices, which fell to $80.9/b due to slowing Chinese oil demand, weaker-than-expected US economic data, and bearish market positioning.
A crude sell-off in early September saw Brent briefly fall below $70/b, driven by negative market sentiment. Despite geopolitical risks, the market remained pressured, prompting further downward adjustments for the third quarter of 2024, with prices now forecasted at $80.4/b.
While weak sentiment prevails, the oil market is expected to stay in deficit through the second half of 2024, with global GDP growth projected to remain strong at 2.7%. Refinery margins have returned to historical norms, and the resulting pressure on product stocks could support a price rebound within the $75-85/b range in the fourth quarter of 2024, before softening in 2025 as OPEC+ begins to ease production cuts.
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