BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 11. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Azerbaijan's oil and other liquid fuels production will average 550,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 530,000 barrels per day in 2027.
According to the EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, these figures represent a decline from the average daily production of 580,000 barrels recorded in 2025.
The report's table presents Azerbaijan's production forecasts by quarter and year. In particular, daily production is expected to reach 560,000 barrels in Q1 2026, and 550,000 barrels in Q2 and Q3, while remaining the same in Q4.
Thus, average daily production in 2026 is forecast to decline by 30,000 barrels from 2025, to 550,000 barrels.
In 2027, Azerbaijan's average daily production of oil and other liquid fuels is expected to decrease to 530,000 barrels. This is 20,000 barrels, or approximately 3.6%, below the forecast figure for 2026.
According to EIA estimates, Azerbaijan's daily production will reach 540,000 barrels in Q1 2027. This figure is expected to fall to 530,000 barrels in Q2 and 520,000 barrels in Q3 and Q4.
Thus, the forecasts indicate a gradual decline in production throughout 2027. Daily output is expected to settle at 520,000 barrels in the second half of the year.
Production trends over years
The EIA report also provides Azerbaijan's production figures in comparison with previous years. In 2025, the country's average daily production of oil and other liquid fuels was estimated at 580,000 barrels. This figure is expected to reach 550,000 barrels in 2026 and 530,000 barrels in 2027.
Based on these figures, production in 2027 is forecast to be 50,000 barrels per day, or approximately 8.6%, lower than in 2025.
The EIA's November forecast for Azerbaijan's daily production in 2027 remains unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The agency also projected average daily production of 530,000 barrels for that year in its October report.
Regional indicators
The report also includes production forecasts for the Eurasia region. According to the EIA, total production of oil and other liquid fuels in the region will average 13.67 million barrels per day in 2025, 13.35 million barrels in 2026, and 13.32 million barrels in 2027.
Alongside Azerbaijan, the report provides figures for other major producers in the region, including Russia and Kazakhstan. Russia's daily production is forecast to decline from 10.53 million barrels in 2025 to 10.34 million barrels in 2026 and 10.27 million barrels in 2027. In Kazakhstan, the corresponding figures are expected to reach 2.15 million, 2.05 million, and 2.14 million barrels, respectively.
