BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 11. Global crude oil production is expected to average 76.10 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, rising to 80.87 million b/d in 2027, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
According to the EIA forecast, global crude oil production, which averaged 79 million b/d in 2025, will decline by 3.7% in 2026. In 2027, production is expected to increase by 6.3% compared to the previous year.
The report assessed global oil production dynamics by breaking them down into three categories: OPEC+ countries, the US, and other countries not party to the OPEC+ agreement.
Specifically, total crude oil production from OPEC+ countries is forecast to fall from 33.33 million b/d in 2025 to 30.08 million b/d in 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. In 2027, the group's production is expected to increase by 11.7%, reaching 33.61 million b/d.
Crude oil production in the United States is projected to continue its upward trend. According to the EIA, production in the country is set to rise from 13.66 million b/d in 2025 to 13.85 million b/d in 2026, and further to 14.30 million b/d in 2027.
Production is also expected to grow in other countries, those outside the OPEC+ agreement and located outside the US. Output in these countries is forecast to rise from 32.01 million barrels b/d in 2025 to 32.16 million barrels b/d in 2026, and to 32.96 million barrels b/d in 2027.
Thus, based on EIA estimates, the decline in global production in 2026 will be primarily driven by a drop in output in OPEC+ countries. The anticipated growth in the US and other non-OPEC+ countries won't be sufficient to fully offset this decline. In 2027, the recovery of production in OPEC+ countries, combined with continued growth in the US and among other producers, will support an expansion in global supply.
The report also presented production figures for OPEC countries separately. According to the forecast, crude oil production by OPEC members is expected to fall from 24.63 million b/d in 2025 to 21.05 million b/d in 2026, before rising to 24.07 million b/d in 2027.
According to the EIA’s assessment, the conflict in the Middle East and resulting constraints on oil supply are among the primary factors influencing production forecasts. Specifically, the volume of suspended crude oil production in the region averaged 2.5 million b/d in October 2026. This figure is significantly lower than the peak of 10.9 million b/d recorded in May.
The Administration anticipates that production constraints in the Middle East will largely persist through the end of 2026, with a gradual recovery in the region's oil production expected in 2027.
