DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, November 11. BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, anticipates that private consumption will continue to be a major driver of Tajikistan's economic growth in 2023 and 2024, supported by recent wage increases and resilient remittance inflows, Trend reports.
The analysts expect that the contribution of private consumption to Tajikistan's GDP will amount to 4.5 percentage points in 2023 and 3 percentage points in 2024.
According to BMI, after reaching a historic peak at 50.9 percent of GDP in 2022 (an increase from 32.7 percent in 2021), personal remittances are projected to ease in 2023 and 2024 but will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Concerning wage hikes, the BMI noted that the government implemented a 25 percent salary increase for military and law enforcement personnel in March 2023, coupled with a 20 percent rise in basic state pensions and student allowances on July 1.
According to BMI analysts, these increases will significantly boost real incomes and consumer purchasing power in the short term, leading to a decrease in average inflation to just 3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2023, down from 6.6 percent in 2022.
BMI has revised its projections for Tajikistan's real GDP growth, raising forecasts from 6.5 percent to 7.3 percent in 2023 and from 4.8 percent to 6 percent in 2024.
