BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. Global crude oil prices are set to decline sharply in the coming months as supply growth outstrips demand, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
The agency forecasts Brent crude prices to fall from $71 per barrel in July to $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $49 in March and April 2026. The drop comes as OPEC+ accelerates the unwinding of production cuts announced in November 2023, bringing an additional 2.2 million barrels per day to market by September this year - two years ahead of schedule.
The EIA expects global oil inventories to build at a record pace, rising by 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 and 2.3 million barrels per day in early 2026. Similar periods of sustained builds in the past, such as in 2020, 2015, and 1998, have seen oil prices tumble by 25% to 50% year-on-year.
Prices below $50 are likely to trigger supply cuts, particularly from OPEC+ and short-cycle producers. U.S. crude output is projected to slip by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2026 from its 2025 record. Lower prices are expected to spur modest demand growth, easing the pace of inventory builds and helping Brent recover to around $54 per barrel by the end of 2026.
