BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Investment in fixed capital in Tajikistan increased by 18.4% year-on-year from January through June 2026, with private-sector capital expenditure rising 1.5 times.
This was announced in a report published by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)
According to the EDB’s latest macroeconomic review, investment activity remains an important driver of Tajikistan’s economic growth. The overall increase in fixed capital investment was recorded across all sources of financing during the first half of 2026.
The bank noted that private-sector capital expenditure became the main driver of the investment process, increasing 1.5 times year-on-year. Most of these investments were directed toward housing construction.
State investment also increased during the reporting period, rising by 7.9% year-on-year from January through June 2026, according to the EDB.
At the same time, foreign investment declined by 31.4% year-on-year during the first six months of the year.
The EDB said Tajikistan’s economy continues to maintain high growth rates, supported by resilient domestic and external demand and the development of the production sector.
The bank previously reported that Tajikistan’s GDP increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The EDB expects the country’s economic growth to reach 8.3% for the full year.
Trend’s analysis indicates that continued investment activity, particularly from the private sector, could support Tajikistan’s economic expansion over the medium term, while the gradual development of the domestic investment base could help sustain capital formation.
Based on the EDB’s 8.3% GDP growth estimate for 2026, Trend’s indicative calculation assumes economic growth of around 7.8% in 2027, 7.4% in 2028, 7% in 2029 and 6.7% in 2030.
Using 2025 as an index of 100, the calculation puts the indicative real GDP level at approximately 108.3 in 2026, 116.7 in 2027, 125.4 in 2028, 134.2 in 2029 and 143.2 in 2030. This would mean an increase of approximately 43% in the real size of Tajikistan’s economy between 2025 and 2030.
If investment activity remains supportive, capital formation could continue contributing to economic growth alongside domestic consumption, production and exports. Private-sector investment is likely to remain particularly important as the economy expands and demand for housing and related infrastructure increases.
At the same time, the decline in foreign investment highlights the importance of maintaining favorable conditions for external capital inflows, which could complement domestic investment and support larger-scale projects.
These figures are Trend’s indicative calculations based on the economic dynamics reported by the EDB and its 2026 GDP growth estimate and do not represent an official forecast by the EDB or the Government of Tajikistan.
