BAKU, Azerbaijan, Jan.10
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Gas demand is expected to significantly go down in shorter term, according to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), Trend reports.
In the shorter term, the GECF expects gas demand to grow by around 2 percent-3 percent a year, which is significantly lower than the growth of around 5 percent recorded in 2018, GECF Secretary General Yury Sentyurin told S&P Global Platts.
Sentyurin named the following reasons for a possible slowdown in gas demand growth in the near term: a return to normal weather conditions; lower industrial activity and slower economic growth in China driven by the US-China trade tensions; easing of the coal-to-gas switching policy in China; the restart of nuclear reactors in Japan; less retirement of coal-fired power plants in the US; and renewables expansion globally.
However, Sentyurin believes that a recovery in gas demand growth in Europe -- driven by the influx of LNG -- could offset a decline in gas consumption in other countries, particularly Japan and South Korea.
"Overall, the GECF believes that there is room for gas to grow more quickly in the near term and there is a dire need for awareness, through policy support for gas, thanks to its role as a fuel of choice in the global transition to a low carbon future," he said.
In longer term the GECF expects gas demand to reach 5.966 Tcm/year by 2050 from 3.924 Tcm in 2018.
"Gas will be the only hydrocarbon resource to raise its share in the global energy mix," he said.
To meet the growing demand for gas by 2050, the GECF calculates that $9.7 trillion in 2018 prices is needed to invest in additional gas production capacity and trade infrastructure compared with $4.3 trillion in 1990-2018.
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