BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 23. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has made only marginal adjustments to its Brent crude oil price forecast, maintaining its outlook at $69.6 per barrel for 2025 and $67.2 per barrel for 2026, despite recent geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East that briefly lifted prices, Trend reports.
According to the OIES, Brent prices surged in June, following a sharp 5% month-on-month drop in May to an average of $64.2 per barrel. The turnaround came after Israel launched military airstrikes against Iran, which fueled fears of a broader regional conflict and triggered an increase in the geopolitical risk premium.
“As of June 18, front-month Brent had risen just over $76 per barrel, marking an 18% increase since the start of the month,” the report noted. “The largest one-day price spike occurred on June 13, when Brent jumped 7%—the biggest daily gain since 2022.”
Despite the price volatility, the OIES maintains a cautious and measured outlook, noting that while the situation remains fluid, its reference case assumes no direct disruption to oil flows from the Israel-Iran confrontation.
“We assume the conflict will be short-lived and that geopolitical risks will begin to recede after June,” the institute stated. “Accordingly, we have raised our June Brent forecast by $2 to $71.2 per barrel, up from $69.2 projected last month.”
The report also highlights that Brent prices were already firming in early June, even before the escalation in the Middle East. Signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations helped reduce demand-side uncertainty, while lower-than-expected OPEC8+ production in May helped counter oversupply concerns.
“Prompt time spreads had strengthened to a 7-week high of $0.92 per barrel by June 9, reflecting a tighter near-term market,” analysts wrote.
Despite the June spike, the OIES expects Brent to return to the $60–70 range in the second half of 2025 and remain there through the end of 2026.
“Our long-term assessment remains unchanged,” the report concludes. “Barring a major supply shock, we see prices staying within this band as demand growth moderates and OPEC+ continues its managed supply strategy.”
The report underscores that market uncertainty remains high, with any shift in the duration or scope of regional conflict—particularly involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—posing significant upside risks to prices.
