Baku, Azerbaijan, May 16
By Nargiz Sadikhova - Trend:
By 2040, the volume of gas consumption can exceed over 31 billion cubic meters in Kazakhstan, Trend reports with reference to Energyprom.
It is estimated that the global natural gas demand will grow. According to the OPEC Bulletin of Statistics, the demand has already increased from 3.5 trillion cubic meters in 2013 to 3.7 cubic meters in 2017.
Furthermore, based on data of The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, by 2040, natural gas will prevail by the absolute increase of consumption volume compared to other energy resources. In the probable scenario, the global demand for gas will amount to about five trillion cubic meters with an absolute increase by almost 1.5 trillion cubic meters with annual 1.4 percent growth.
According to national “Concept for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector until 2030”, there are three main scenarios based on the level of Kazakhstan region’s gas supply.
In the most optimistic scenario, the volume of energy consumption will reach up to 25.4 billion cubic meters by 2030 and 34.4 billion cubic meters by 2050.
According to the pessimistic scenario, there are options of maintenance of the current levels of gas supply on the territory of Kazakhstan and the percentage of gas generation in the structure of generation capacity of Kazakhstan, as well as of limited development of the petro-chemistry entities. Under these conditions, the volume of gas consumption will not exceed 14.3 billion cubic meters by 2030 and will amount up to 19.9 billion cubic meters per year by 2050.
There is also a "realistic", which is accepted as a basic scenario in the General scheme of gas supply. It says that by 2020, the estimated volume of gas consumption will reach 16.3 billion cubic meters and by 2030, the figure will increase up to some 18.1 billion cubic meters. Thus, if the trends that are taken into consideration within this scenario will continue after 2030, then by 2050 the volume of gas consumption will reach some 29.6 billion cubic meters a year.
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