ASTANA, Kazakhstan, November 22. Kazakhstan’s current account deficit will reach around four percent of GDP in 2025, the International Monetary Fund said after completing its 2025 Article IV consultation, Trend reports via the fund.
The IMF said strong domestic demand, including activity from state-owned enterprises, continues to pressure external balances. Despite this, economic growth remains robust. The fund expects GDP to rise slightly above six percent in 2025, driven by higher oil output and solid consumption.
Inflation, nonetheless, is projected to remain elevated. It is projected to end this year near 13 percent and remain elevated in 2026 due to tax increases and upcoming utility tariff adjustments. The IMF also noted that fiscal policy is loose, with the non-oil deficit projected to be above 8 percent of GDP in 2025 as the government relies on large transfers from the National Fund.
Key risks to the economic outlook include slower growth in major trading partners, lower oil prices, and possible disruptions to oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Delays in infrastructure projects or slower fiscal tightening could also weigh on the outlook.
According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), the country's current account deficit for the first half of 2025 amounted to $3.9 billion. The NBK anticipates the current account deficit to be 3.8 percent of GDP in 2025 and stay above 3.5 percent through 2027, reflecting a structural imbalance between export earnings and import demand. In 2024, Kazakhstan's current account deficit was 1.3 percent.