ASTANA, Kazakhstan, November 22. Kazakhstan’s National Bank (NBK) should maintain a restrictive monetary stance until inflation moves close to its target, the International Monetary Fund said after completing its 2025 Article IV consultation in the country, Trend reports via the fund.
The IMF pointed out that keeping a tight grip on monetary policy and stronger liquidity management remain essential amid persistent inflation. The fund welcomed the NBK’s recent rate increase and the gradual introduction of higher reserve requirements to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system.
It also recommended considering additional tools, including coordinated issuance of short-term notes by the NBK and treasury bills by the Finance Ministry.
The mission also supported the government’s fiscal consolidation plans but said large quasi-fiscal activities by state-owned enterprises (SOE) could weaken the overall restrictive policy mix. Strengthening fiscal rules and improving SOE reporting, the IMF added, will be key to maintaining medium-term consolidation.
According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the country's annual inflation slightly eased to 12.6 percent in October, down from 12.9 percent in September.
Earlier, Serik Zhumangarin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, stated during a session of the Senate of the Parliament that Kazakhstan is forecasting an inflation rate of 9-11 percent for 2026. The inflation rate is projected to be 5.5-7.5 percent in 2027 and 5-7 percent in 2028.
In October 2025, the National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its benchmark interest rate from 16.5 percent to 18 percent, with annual inflation in September exceeding the National Bank’s expectation.
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