BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 13. Two scenarios are considered in modeling Russian gas supplies to Europe, Trend reports via the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
Those are:
- Baseline Scenario: Models up to 31 bcm of pipeline flows from
Russia with no embargo on LNG.
- Great Decoupling Scenario: Assumes all flows (pipeline and LNG)
from Russia to Europe are embargoed.
In 2023, Russia supplied natural gas to Europe through pipelines via Ukraine (13.4 bcma compared to 82 bcm in 2021) and Türkiye (16 bcma compared to 10 bcm in 2021), and via LNG from the Yamal LNG plant to Northwest (NWE) and South Europe (18.8 bcma in 2022 compared to 17.4 bcm in 2021), accounting for 13% of EU’s 2022 consumption, down from 39% in 2021.
Though Russian gas remains unsanctioned by European authorities, discussions have surfaced regarding potential sanctions on Russian LNG imports and unused pipeline imports (e.g., Nord Stream and Yamal-Europe pipelines). Such actions could provoke Russia into imposing countersanctions, potentially disrupting the remaining gas supplies to Europe.
Though other scenarios could be envisioned, like retaining existing contracted pipeline and LNG flows or increasing supplies above the 2022-23 baseline (e.g., to approximately 70 bcm/year of contractual volumes, subject to dispute with European buyers), these are deemed politically implausible and irrelevant for energy system resilience and planning.
Adopting a conservative, stress-testing approach aligns with the principle that ensuring energy security requires cautious and risk-averse planning.
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