BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 18. Thin refinery margins are set to continue into 2025, particularly during the seasonal demand lull in the first quarter, according to Valerie Panopio, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, Trend reports.
Although margins in Asia may see some support in the second quarter due to refinery maintenance, the broader outlook for demand growth remains subdued. This is largely attributed to the rising market share of electric vehicles (EVs) and ongoing improvements in fuel efficiency, especially in China.
The weak-margin environment has already led to refinery closures in key markets such as China, the US, and Europe, a trend that is expected to persist throughout the upcoming year. In addition, delays in the commissioning of new refinery capacity are becoming more likely, further straining the sector.
As these factors continue to shape the global refining landscape, Rystad Energy suggests that a potential product tightness could emerge in the second half of 2025. This development may help drive a modest recovery in refinery margins, though any significant improvement is expected to be gradual.