Azerbaijan, Baku/ Trend , corr. I. Khalilova/ The State Statistics Committee is not in agreement with the forecasts made by the international financial organizations on the inflation growth rates in Azerbaijan.
According to ADB (Asian Development Bank), the growth rates of the index of consumer prices are expected to be at a rate of 14 %, however IMF forecast this indicator at a rate of 21.1 percent against 8.4 % registered in 2006.
"If the growth rates of the prices are kept at the level of last year, then in 2007, the inflation rate may be expected at a level of 12-13 %. This may be possible at the expense of deflation, which is expected to occur in May-July, 2007. If it is a high rate, then we may expect a one-digit inflation rate in 2007," Arif Valiyev, the Chairman of the State Committee, stated during today's press conference.
According to Valiyev, without taking into consideration the rise in prices and tariffs of public utilities in January, 2007, the inflation rate in the first quarter would have reached 11 % against the real indicator of 16.6 %.
"Since September, 2006, the base of calculation of the inflation rate has been high, therefore, in 2007, inflation reached about 9 % (if January price increases would not have occurred)," he said.
Mr. Valiyev considers the increase in the inflation rate as normal, since the profit of the population increase as well.
Notably, in 1992, the population's profits increased by 8 times, and the prices by 10 times, in 1994, by 9 times and 17.6 times correspondingly, in 1995 by 5.5 times and 5.1 times correspondingly, in 1996 but 42 times and 19 times correspondingly, in 2005 by 26 % and 10 % correspondingly, and in the first quarter by 35% and 16.6 % correspondingly.