BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 10. In 2023, assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2022; global LNG exports including LNG reloads are forecasted to grow by 4-4.5 percent (16-18 Mt) y-o-y to 416 Mt, Trend reports with reference to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
“This represents a slight slowdown in the pace of growth in LNG exports from the previous year. Non-GECF countries are forecasted to account for bulk incremental LNG exports with an additional 11 Mt, while LNG exports from GECF member countries are forecasted to rise by 6 Mt,” reads the report released by GECF.
Assumptions for global LNG exports in 2023:
Upside
• Start-up and ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in Congo, Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, Russia and the US: 10-11 Mt
• Ramp up of the Hammerfest LNG facility in Norway: 1.5-2 Mt • Restart of the Freeport LNG facility in the US: 5-6 Mt
• Higher feedgas availability in Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago: 1-2 Mt
• Lower maintenance activity at Prelude FLNG in Australia: 1-2 Mt
Downside
• Lower feedgas availability in Brunei and Nigeria: 1-2 Mt
• Lower feedgas availability for the Darwin LNG facility in Australia: 0.5-1 Mt
Stable
• LNG exports from all other countries are assumed to be at the same level as 2022
“In 2024, also assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2023, the pace of growth in global LNG exports is forecasted to accelerate slightly by 4.5-5 percent (18-20 Mt) y-o-y to 435 Mt. Both GECF member countries and non-GECF countries are forecasted to boost global LNG exports with additional 10 Mt and 9 Mt of LNG respectively,” reads the report.
Assumptions for global LNG exports in 2024:
Upside
• Start-up and ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in Congo, Indonesia, Mauritania/ Senegal, Mexico, Mozambique, Russia, Suriname and the US: 13-14 Mt
• Ramp-up in production from the Freeport LNG facility in the US: 2-3 Mt
• Higher feedgas availability in Algeria, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago: 3-4 Mt
Downside
• Shutdown of the Darwin LNG facility in Australia for refurbishment: 0-0.5 Mt
Stable
• LNG exports from all other countries are assumed to be at the same level as 2023
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