Central Asia is surrounded by countries with the fastest growing economies in the world - Russia, India and China. And if the question of availability, particularly of the hydrocarbon is irrelevant for Russia, for the economies of China and India, the question of possessing the necessary volumes of oil and gas is vital necessity. A crucial role in the project of construction of transnational gas pipeline Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) was played by the consent of India to participate in it. It is projected that in 20 years this country will become the first in the world in terms of population and the third - its economy and energy market.
On the other hand, large reserves of natural resources, development and diversification of which provide a foundation for economic growth, have concentrate in the Central Asian countries. According to 'CENTRAL ASIA COMPETITIVENESS OUTLOOK' report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Kazakhstan, for example, has reserves of oil, which is enough for at least 65 years and coal reserves - 308 years and, in addition, is a major exporter of wheat. Turkmenistan has gas reserves that will last for 223 years (the ratio of gas to the volume of production), Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have great potential in hydropower, Uzbekistan has significant reserves of natural gas, as well as a significant exporter of cotton. Afghanistan has huge reserves of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and lithium, Kyrgyzstan has a large gold field (8th in the world). Arable territories of the Central Asian countries annually produce some 25 million tons of wheat. The issue of mutual relevance is the main conclusion to answer the question whether the TAPI pipeline is profitable. Already there are examples of establishing such ties between Central Asia and the rest of the world: Central Asia-China gas pipeline, Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline, China-Central Asia transport corridor (the highway connecting China with Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian states).
Turkmenistan owns large natural gas reserves. According to the data provided by BP, as of the end of 2009, the reserves were estimated at 8.1 trillion cubic meters (fourth place in the world). At present, Turkmenistan exports its gas to China, Iran and Russia and in perspective will export to India and Europe. Diversification of routes is carried out within the international initiatives of President Berdymukhammedov to ensure global energy security.
In addition to Dovletabad field, the resource base for supplies will be developed Yoloten field with the resources of 22 trillion cubic meters of gas. The total length of the ga pipeline will be about 1,700 km, of which 150 km will account for the territory of Turkmenistan, 750 km - Afghanistan and 800 km - Pakistan. Part of the route (approximately one-third) will run via mountains or broken grounds in the area of Quetta in Pakistan and several other sites. Design capacity is 33 billion cubic meters. In 2005, ADB financed a feasibility study, which was prepared by the British Penspen Company. The project costs $7.8 billion. Construction should be completed in 2014.
At present, the experts of TAPI participating countries, with the participation of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), prepare an agreement for the sale of Turkmen gas, which the sides intend to sign soon. A source close to last week's talks in Ashgabat reported without specifying that "agreements have been reached on many issues". Discussions are conducted on the issues of financing, securing the gas pipeline, transit fees and gas consortium. So far, several companies, including Italy's Eni and Russia's Gazprom have displayed an interest in participating in the project. The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake, who has made a short tour to Central Asia recently, also touched at a press conference in Ashgabat on the issue of participation of the U.S. companies in the project. "These discussions are still ongoing. We're still at an early stage of the process."
The Ministry of Oil and Gas Industry of Turkmenistan in 2010 conducted a research of gas markets of India and Pakistan. The research noted that in ten years, the aggregate demand for natural gas markets of India and Pakistan can grow, presumably, to 186 billion cubic meters. At the same time, both states will be able to produce a total of 100 billion cubic meters in this period. "This means that in ten years they will need to fill their needs, importing 90 billion cubic meters of natural gas," says the research.
According to the U.S. Energy Agency EIA, the proven gas reserves in India make up 1 trillion cubic meters. Own production of gas (International Energy Outlook 2010) for the forecast period by 2035 will grow by an average of 4 percent per year. By 2015, average production growth will reach 11.7 percent per year, and from 2015 to 2035 it will drop to 1 percent. In the same period, gas demand will grow by an average of 1.8 percent per year, and this outstrips its own production by nearly two times.
According to forecasts of another authoritative organizations - the International Energy Agency (IEA), the growth needs of the Indian gas market in 2025 will amount to 113 billion cubic meters, and in 2030 - up to 132 billion cubic meters. According to IEA projections, India will be forced to import gas: in 2015 - 18 billion cubic meters, in 2025 - 40 billion, 2030 - 52 billion cubic meters.
The Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas of India Murli Deora also confirmed the increasing demand for natural gas in India during the Ashgabat summit. The Indian minister said that "although the TAPI project envisages delivering to India 38 million cubic meters of gas per day, we hope that we get from Turkmenistan more raw materials to meet the energy needs of our growing economy." And so, the Minister said India is interested in the TAPI gas pipeline and long-term supplies of Turkmen gas.
The Ministry of Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan notes that the natural gas is the main fuel resource in Pakistan. According to the "Integrated Energy Sector Recovery Report Plan - October 2010" prepared by the Government of Pakistan with the support from the Asian Development Bank, 47.5 percent of the energy resources consumed by the country accounts for natural gas.
Proved gas reserves, which according to the IEA is about 900 billion cubic meters, will dramatically reduce in 20-25 years while maintaining the current production capacity.
In 1999, Pakistan consumed 20.3 billion cubic meters of gas per year. 10 years later, in 2009 the figure has almost doubled - to 38.7 billion cubic meters. In 2015, this figure is expected to increase to 92 billion cubic meters. It is assumed that at this time, the natural gas production in the country will fall to 31.5 billion cubic meters. Ten years later Pakistan will need to meet the domestic needs, importing 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year.
According to international sources, Pakistan did not conduct
import operations by the end of 2009.
The share of the gas for Afghanistan may take up to 5 billion cubic meters per year.
In addition to revenue for transit, which can reach $300 million per year, it will be important to create related infrastructure along the route. During the construction, it is planned to open 12,000 job opportunities for local people. The Government intends to open about a thousand industrial enterprises along the pipeline. All this can give an impetus to the development of the country's economy.
It is true that in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan will be able to receive Turkmen gas. It will better balance the economic development of the two major regions of the planet, reduce the global risks - economic inequality and the vulnerability of energy prices.