BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 18. Medium-term forecasts indicate a threefold increase in low-emission hydrogen production, with China, Europe, and North America leading the charge, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts, despite this rapid expansion, current project development may not suffice to meet ambitious regional targets.
In 2022, low-emission hydrogen production remained relatively stagnant, at approximately 0.7 million metric tons, constituting just 0.7 percent of total hydrogen output, according to the agency's estimations. Most low-emission hydrogen was derived from fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), with around 15 large-scale facilities worldwide capturing about 11 million metric tons of CO2 annually.
Natural gas with CCUS represented over half of the global low-emission hydrogen production, the IEA says. On the other hand, low-emission hydrogen production through water electrolysis grew by about 35 percent in 2022 but remained relatively small, producing less than 100,000 metric tons. Regionally, North America continued to dominate low-emission hydrogen production, accounting for roughly two-thirds of global output.
The IEA Hydrogen Projects Database suggests that projects at various stages of development could boost global low-emission hydrogen production to 12 million metric tons (or 36 bcm equivalent) by 2026, with water electrolysis projects contributing about 75 percent of this growth potential. However, the majority of these projects are still in the feasibility or conceptual phases, with fewer than 20 percent in advanced development stages, such as operational, under construction, or having reached a final investment decision (FID).
When focusing on mature projects, low-emission hydrogen production more than triples, reaching 2 million metric tons per year (or 6 bcm equivalent) by 2026, the IEA projects. Regionally, North America is expected to drive much of the production growth, contributing over 40 percent of the incremental supply during the forecast period, followed by China (20 percent) and Europe (17 percent).
