BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 29. Kazakhstan's coal production is projected to decline from 115.9 million tonnes per year in 2025 to around 88 million tonnes in 2035 and 70.5 million tonnes in 2050, according to S&P Global Energy's baseline scenario cited in the National Energy Report prepared by the Kazenergy Association in cooperation with S&P Global.
The projected decline is attributed to lower domestic demand, particularly in the power generation sector, as well as significant challenges in maintaining coal exports at their current levels, the report says.
"Kazakhstan's coal industry remains the largest in Central Asia. In recent years, it has seen steady growth in production and significant investment, particularly from leading companies. However, the industry is expected to enter a long-term decline," the report says.
Coal's share of Kazakhstan's primary energy consumption decreased from 56% in 2015 to 46.5% in 2025, despite an increase in total primary energy demand from 75.3 million tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) to 104 million toe over the same period.
According to S&P Global Energy's baseline scenario, coal's share is expected to continue declining, reaching 34% by 2035 and 25% by 2050. The report attributes this trend mainly to gasification, the expansion of renewable energy sources and the development of nuclear power.
