BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 29. Kazakhstan's net coal exports are projected to decline from 29.8 million tonnes in 2025 to 21.3 million tonnes by 2050, while coal production and domestic consumption are also expected to decrease, according to the National Energy Report prepared by the Kazenergy Association in cooperation with S&P Global.
According to the report's forecast, Kazakhstan's coal production will fall from 115.9 million tonnes to 70.5 million tonnes by 2050. Visible coal consumption is projected to decline from 86.1 million tonnes in 2025 to 49.3 million tonnes over the same period.
"These trends are consistent with a scenario in which Kazakhstan's economy gradually improves energy efficiency, progressively increases gas consumption, expands renewable power generation capacity and develops nuclear power generation," the report says.
Despite the projected decline in production and consumption, Kazakhstan remains one of the world's leading coal producers and consumers, supported by its substantial coal resources. The country ranks tenth globally in coal reserves, which are sufficient to last for more than 300 years at current production rates, according to the report.
As of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's balance coal reserves totaled 33.52 billion tonnes. Reserves in categories A+B+C1, equivalent to proven and probable reserves, amounted to 28.72 billion tonnes, while category C2 resources, classified as prospective, totaled 4.8 billion tonnes. The reserves and resources are distributed across 49 deposits, with industrial mining underway at deposits containing 51.4% of the total.
Around two-thirds of Kazakhstan's coal reserves consist of bituminous and sub-bituminous coal, both classified as hard coal under the country's classification system. The remainder is lignite, or brown coal.
Coal mining in Kazakhstan is concentrated in five coal basins and 14 deposits. The largest basins are located in central and northern Kazakhstan, particularly in the Karaganda and Pavlodar regions.
More than half of the country's coal reserves are concentrated in Pavlodar region, home to the Ekibastuz basin, with reserves of 10.1 billion tonnes, and the Maikuben basin, with 2 billion tonnes.
Major open-pit mines include Bogatyr, Severny, Vostochny and Ekibastuz. The Ekibastuz basin has relatively low production costs because its coal seams are thick and lie close to the surface, allowing coal to be extracted using open-pit methods. Major coal-fired power plants in Kazakhstan use relatively inexpensive Ekibastuz coal, the report says.
