Baku, Azerbaijan, April 6
By Fikret Dolukhanov – Trend:
Macroeconomic stability and improvement of the competitive environment observed in the first quarter of 2018 contributed to the reduction of inflation expectations in the economy of Uzbekistan, the press service of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan stated in its report on inflation expectations in the economy in the first quarter of 2018.
To assess inflation expectations in the economy, determine the factors that affect them, and to prevent their unjustified growth, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan introduced the practice of conducting regular surveys of the population and business entities in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, regions and city of Tashkent using a standardized questionnaire from the beginning of 2018.
The surveys were conducted in January, February and March 2018 through face-to-face interviews and will continue on a monthly basis.
According to the information, a total of 750 individuals and 300 legal entities participate in surveys throughout the republic every month. There are 50 physical and 20 legal entities from the Republic of Karakalpakstan and regions, 100 individuals and 40 legal entities from Tashkent.
During the surveys, the level of inflation perceived by the population and business entities, factors affecting it, inflation expectations for the future period and consumer mood are estimated.
In March, 64 percent of the population who participated in the survey noted that prices rose slightly or remained at the same level last month. In January, the share of respondents who responded the same way was 31 percent, and in February - 50 percent.
This trend is largely reasoned by the stabilization of prices for consumer goods in the markets of the republic in February and March 2018. Also, 11 percent of respondents in March indicated a decline in prices last month.
The population's feedback on the level of perceived inflation over the past three months is also changing for the better. In January and February 2018, the share of respondents who believed that prices have “grown significantly” over the past three months or “rose as before” was 74 percent and 64 percent respectively.
In March 2018, the figure dropped to 42 percent. That indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure in the economy in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.
The strengthening of the Uzbek soum exchange rate in the first quarter of 2018 had a positive impact on business expectations regarding the next quarter.
In March 2018, 73 percent of the business subjects interviewed assumed that in the second quarter of 2018 the exchange rate would be lower than 8,300 soums (61 percent in January, 60 percent in February), and 39 percent believed that the exchange rate would be lower than 8,200 soums (23 percent in January, 19 percent in February).
During the first quarter of 2018, the expectations of the population and business entities regarding the prospects for economic development of the country remain positive.
(8100.92 soums = 1 USD on April 6)
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