BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 15. The Trans Adriatic Pipeline’s (TAP) expansion to 20 billion cubic meters per year requires steady execution, Dr. Robert M. Cutler, Director and Senior Research Fellow, Energy Security Program, NATO Association of Canada, told Trend, as TAP marks 5 years since the start of commercial operation.
He recalled that since full start-up in 2020, TAP has moved over 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) by early September 2025.
"Its value is systemic: gas landing at Puglia’s Melendugno can fill Italian storage, complement LNG terminals, and move through interconnectors toward Greece and Bulgaria when conditions
warrant. Because flows track storage cycles and LNG send-out, operators can schedule maintenance and release capacity on a clear calendar. That translates commitments into a published schedule, steadies winter pricing, and limits emergency purchases. This yields a balanced supply mix: flexible LNG with steady pipeline volumes, reduced exposure to any single supplier, and cleaner planning for Italy and its neighbors. It supplies Shah Deniz gas, anchors the cross-Türkiye segment via TANAP, and is set to enter Italy’s downstream through the planned SOCAR-Italiana Petroli acquisition," said Cutler.
He pointed out that reliability is what matters: when booked volumes arrive and updates are timely, buyers plan instead of improvise.
"The 2022 EU-Azerbaijan target of at least 20 bcm per year (bcm/y) by 2027 remains credible but requires steady execution," noted the analyst.
As for expansion of TAP for the coming decades, Cutler said that first is execution.
"It is necessary to complete compressor upgrades, improve metering, finish tie-ins, and publish winter 2025–26 maintenance windows early. Keep TANAP moving toward 31 bcm/y and hold Shah Deniz deliverability at least flat. Deliver the first TAP expansion by 2026, with a second phase when bookings are on the books. Second is transparency. A brief quarterly bulletin (early January, April, July, October) should lock maintenance dates, announce extra capacity, and define data releases.
Third is finance. Funding should be aligned with downstream monetization. SOCAR’s Italian role supports lender confidence. EU instruments, Italy’s Mattei Plan channels, and multilaterals can be used to clear midstream bottlenecks. Fourth is regulatory stability. Set methane rules to realistic equipment timelines, accelerate certifications and permits, and strengthen interconnectors into the Balkans, Greece, and Bulgaria. Then new capacity will be usable the moment it arrives," he concluded.
On November 15, 2020, four and a half years after the inauguration of construction works, the 878-km gas transportation system crossing Greece, Albania, the Adriatic Sea and Italy, began commercial operations. On December 31, 2020 TAP started transporting first gas. TAP’s annual capacity is 10 billion cubic meters with the possibility of expansion to 20 billion cubic meters.
The increase of TAP supplies by an additional 1.2 billion cubic meters by 2026 was approved in January 2024. Work is currently underway to organize gas supplies to Albania via TAP starting in 2026.