BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 15. bp’s latest outlook projects significant changes in the global oil production landscape, with non-OPEC+ producers bearing the brunt of decreasing demand, Trend reports.
bp's forecast indicates that in the current trajectory scenario, global oil demand and production remain relatively stable in the first half of the outlook. The distribution between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ supplies also stays consistent, with OPEC+ maintaining around a 50-percent share of global oil supplies, according to bp's forecast.
The producer also highlights that the composition of non-OPEC+ output will evolve through 2035. US tight oil production is set to increase in the near term, peaking at about 16 mb/d by the end of this decade, before gradually declining as the most advantageous sites become exhausted. As US tight oil growth slows, robust production from Brazil and Guyana will bolster non-OPEC+ supply, reaching around 5 Mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, respectively, by the mid-2030s, bp's outlook notes.
Due to relatively flat demand and resilient non-OPEC+ output, bp's forecast suggests that OPEC+ has limited scope to increase its production levels in the first half of the outlook. In the second half of the outlook, bp indicates that declining oil demand is expected to prompt OPEC+ to increase its market share to over 60 percent by 2050. Consequently, almost all the decline in oil demand post-2035 will impact non-OPEC+ producers, with US tight oil production halving from its peak to about 8 mb/d by 2050.
Under the Net Zero scenario outlined in BP's forecast, an earlier and more significant fall in oil demand results in sustained decreases in both non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ output. The higher cost structure of non-OPEC+ production and OPEC+’s strategy to maximize its share of diminishing global oil production means bp's forecast concludes.