BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the US, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil will collectively add 1.1 mb/d to non-OPEC+ oil supply gains in both 2024 and 2025, Trend reports.
Among these, the US is expected to account for nearly half of the non-OPEC+ expansion in 2024 and 40% in 2025.
The sustained growth in US shale production has led the world’s top oil producer to achieve new annual record highs over the past two years, significantly widening the supply gap with Saudi Arabia, the agency noted. Since OPEC+ began implementing production cuts in the third quarter of 2022, Saudi Arabia’s output has decreased from near-record levels of 12.8 mb/d to 10.9 mb/d. In contrast, US production has increased from 18.4 mb/d to current levels of 20.3 mb/d, nearly doubling that of Riyadh.
Moreover, according to the agency's report, currently, OPEC+ plans to gradually lift some voluntary crude cuts from October 2024 through September 2025. However, the group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) noted on August 1 that it may pause or reverse this decision based on market conditions.
According to the IEA’s projections, the global oil market could face an oversupply in 2025 if OPEC+ follows through with its planned reduction adjustments. Even if the cuts remain in place, global oil inventories might build up by an average of 920 kb/d in 2025.