BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 23. Kazakhstan produced a record 99.6 million tonnes of oil in 2025, while ongoing refinery expansion projects and efforts to optimize export routes are shaping the country's long-term energy strategy.
This is reflected in the statement published by the government of Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan's 2026 oil production plan is set at 98 million tonnes, slightly below the 2025 level. In the first half of 2026, crude oil output reached 45.7 million tonnes, putting production on a trajectory close to the annual target.
Gas production increased by 15% in 2025 to 68.2 billion cubic meters, while the 2026 target is set at 62.8 billion cubic meters. During the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan produced 31.9 billion cubic meters of gas. The country also continues expanding renewable energy capacity, with seven out of 10 planned renewable energy projects for 2026 already commissioned, accounting for 212 MW of the targeted 245.8 MW.
At the same time, Kazakhstan is accelerating efforts to increase domestic oil processing capacity. Under the Concept for the Development of the Oil Refining Industry through 2040, the country plans to expand major refineries, including the Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant from 5.5 million tonnes to 9 million tonnes per year, the Shymkent refinery from 6 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes, and the Atyrau refinery from 5.5 million tonnes to 6.7 million tonnes. A feasibility study is also being prepared for a new refinery with a capacity of 10 million tonnes per year.
If implemented, these projects could increase Kazakhstan's total refining capacity from around 17 million tonnes to approximately 37.7 million tonnes annually.
Trend's analysis shows that Kazakhstan's energy strategy is increasingly focused on balancing three priorities: maintaining oil production growth, expanding domestic processing capacity, and improving the flexibility of export logistics.
The record 2025 production figure reflects the impact of expanded output at major fields, particularly Tengiz. However, the slightly lower 2026 production target indicates a more moderate growth trajectory as large-scale projects move from construction and ramp-up stages toward stable operations.
The expansion of refining capacity represents a longer-term shift toward greater domestic value addition. Kazakhstan currently exports most of its crude production, while some refined products remain dependent on imports. Increasing processing capacity could reduce this dependence and strengthen the country's position in regional fuel markets.
The logistics component is also becoming increasingly important as Kazakhstan seeks to diversify export options. Deputy General Director for Commercial Affairs at KMG Kashagan B.V. Kuanysh Keskinbayev told Trend that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are working to optimize oil supply chains and increase transit volumes through the Caspian route.
"We have a general agreement under which we operate. Under this agreement, we are constantly working to increase transit volumes. However, frankly speaking, the most important issue is the economics of the route. Because it's a very long, multimodal route, we are currently actively working to resolve this issue," Keskinbayev said.
According to him, current supplies through Azerbaijan include nearly 250,000 tonnes of oil annually from the Kashagan field and around 1.5 million tonnes from Tengiz.
He also noted that the expansion of Tengiz production capacity remains one of the key factors affecting Kazakhstan's future oil balance. "As part of the expansion, a third-generation plant was launched at Tengiz, which increased production by 10-11 million tonnes per year," Keskinbayev said.
