BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 7. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed its 'BBB-/A-3' issuer credit ratings and 'kzAAA' national scale rating on Halyk Bank, while revising the outlook on its long-term global scale ratings to positive, according to the agency.
Halyk Bank remains the largest bank in Central Asia. While its operations are less diversified than those of similarly rated European, Middle Eastern and African peers, the bank holds a predominant domestic market share of about 30% in terms of loans and deposits, S&P said.
The agency expects Halyk Bank to retain high levels of capital adequacy, with its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio projected at about 9.0%-9.5% over the forecast period. Its earnings buffer, which measures the bank's ability to cover normalized losses, is expected to remain above 3%, which S&P considers high in an international context.
At the same time, asset quality indicators have been slipping, with Stage 3 loans reaching 8.6% as of mid-2026. However, S&P expects the reclassification of corporate exposures and eventual write-off of retail Stage 3 loans, together with resilient macroeconomic prospects, to result in nonperforming loans trending below 7% in 2027-2028.
"The positive outlook on Halyk Bank reflects our view that the eventual slowdown in inflation and lower policy rates - together with resilient economic growth - may help reduce the economic risks faced by the banking sector of Kazakhstan," S&P said.
S&P noted that Kazakh banking regulation and supervision has continually improved, which, combined with accumulated solid capital and sovereign strength, will help preserve stability in the Kazakh financial system and enable it to better navigate business and economic cycles.
Therefore, the agency revised upward its industry risk score for the Kazakhstani banking sector to '6' from '7'. The industry risk trend is now stable.
Following the recent upgrade of Kazakhstan's sovereign rating to 'BBB/A-2' on August 21, 2026, S&P revised the economic risk score for the country's banking sector to positive from stable.
The agency said the revision reflects its expectation that resilient macroeconomic prospects could gradually ease potential sources of economic imbalances, specifically elevated inflation, faced by domestic financial institutions. Together with stronger regulatory oversight, this should translate into better asset quality metrics, which S&P still sees as a weakness of the Kazakh banking sector.
According to Trend's analysis, the positive outlook on Halyk Bank reflects a broader improvement in the assessment of Kazakhstan's economy and financial sector. The upgrade of the country's sovereign rating to BBB from BBB- in August was followed by improved ratings for several major Kazakh companies and financial institutions, indicating stronger confidence in the country's economic and institutional conditions.
The improvement in Kazakhstan's banking sector assessment is also supported by stronger regulation, solid capitalization and expectations of easing inflationary pressures. If these trends continue, they could further strengthen the credit profiles of Kazakh banks and other major borrowers.
