Azerbaijan, Baku, May 20 / Trend V.Zhavoronkova /
The U.S. and Russia, despite their current coherence in stabilizing the situation in Kyrgyzstan, will soon continue their struggle for influence over this country, German NGO Eurasian Transition Group Head Michael Laubsch said.
Kyrgyzstan still observes unrests that began in early April. As a result of this, Kurmanbek Bakiyev's government was overthrown and now Rosa Otunbayeva acts as the country's president.
"It seems that Russia coordinates its efforts with the U.S to stabilize the situation in Kyrgyzstan," Laubsch wrote Trend in an e-mail. "But, I would assume that sooner or later Russia and the U.S. will continue their peaceful "fight" regarding the influence in Kyrgyzstan."
He said the West hails Moscow's efforts coordinated with the U.S. and it also gives the West some trust into Russia's plans in Bishkek.
But at the same time, nobody yet knows how the Russian sphere of influence in Kyrgyzstan will develop within the next months.
He said the Kremlin, of course, is quite interested in creating more intense and close ties with the new government in Bishkek. But there is probably a new strategy that the Kremlin does not want to put too much pressure on the Otunbayeva administration, until the political situation of it will become more stable, Laubsch believes.
"Putting demands on the table right now (for example: regarding the U.S. presence in Manas) would probably end in new tensions between Moscow and Bishkek," Laubsch said.
So the current and probably, temporarily coordinated efforts of Russia and the U.S. are the best for the Central Asian country, Laubsch noted.
He believes Russia's essential goal in Kyrgyzstan is an increased influence. But at present, Russia is interested in the stable political situation in Kyrgyzstan and support by the majority of the Kyrgyz people to the country's new administration.
"Russia is well aware of the situation. It knows that the Bishkek government can only survive, when state budget is again flowing into the hands of the people that need the money," Laubsch said. "Therefore, Russia will also be "silently" happy, when Bishkek will receive some new financial aid not only from Russia, but also from the U.S."
If this works and the new government is more or less stable, the Kremlin will be more forcing in achieving its geopolitical interests again in Kyrgyzstan, Laubsch said.
Laubsch believes the new government in Bishkek is more or less heterogenic in its views, whether or not "supporting" Russia's interests in the country.
"However, I am quite sure that the Kremlin will try to support its supporters in preparation for the upcoming elections in the country, of course, behind closed doors," Laubsch said.
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