DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, August 1. Tajikistan's inflation is projected to rise slightly to 3.9 percent in 2025 and then converge to the National Bank of Tajikistan's (NBT) medium-term target of 5 percent (±2), Trend reports via the World Bank (WB).
This outlook reflects Tajikistan's continued prudent monetary policy, despite global uncertainty and rising food and commodity prices.
According to the World Bank, the NBT is expected to maintain a monetary stance focused on price stability, adjusting policy rates if needed to manage inflationary pressures.
In 2024, consumer price inflation remained below the NBT’s target range, averaging 3.6 percent compared to 3.8 percent in 2023. The World Bank attributes this stability to several factors: lower international food prices, a stable exchange rate, and proactive policy measures by the central bank.
Bringing inflation under control, the National Bank of Tajikistan has started to reduce interest rates, starting with a reduction from 10 percent to 9.5 percent in February 2024 and gradually reducing them to 8.25 percent by May 2025. This reflects growing confidence in the Bank's ability to manage inflation expectations.
