BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 6. Asian gas demand surged by approximately 7% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2024, fueled primarily by strong consumption in China and, to a lesser extent, India, according to the latest outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
This growth was significantly supported by extreme weather events, including widespread heatwaves across the region in the second quarter, coupled with relatively low liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in the first half of the year.
However, preliminary data indicate a modest slowdown in demand growth in the third quarter, attributed to recovering spot LNG prices, improved availability of nuclear and hydro power, and a deceleration in industrial activity in China. These factors could pose challenges for gas consumption as the year progresses.
The IEA forecasts that Asian gas consumption will increase by more than 5% for the full year of 2024, with approximately 70% of this growth expected to come from China alone. Notably, the industrial sector is projected to account for 40% of the overall increase. Looking ahead, the IEA projects that total gas consumption in Asia will continue to rise by another 5% in 2025, driven by an increase in global LNG supply.
Emerging Asia, which includes countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, saw an estimated 4% year-on-year increase in gas consumption during the first seven months of 2024. Much of this growth occurred in the early months of the year, driven by low LNG prices and high cooling demand in April and May. However, demand growth has since slowed, particularly in Thailand, where gas consumption declined by 0.4% year-on-year due to offsetting trends: modest power demand growth of 2% was overshadowed by a significant decrease in industrial demand (down 13%) and transport (down 17%).
Conversely, Indonesia experienced a more robust gas demand growth of 5% year-on-year during the same period, primarily driven by the industrial sector.
Looking forward, the IEA expects that natural gas demand in emerging Asia will increase by 3% in 2024, primarily supported by the power sector. The growth rate is projected to accelerate to over 5% in 2025 as greater LNG supply availability unlocks additional demand across the region.