BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17. Global oil production from conventional projects sanctioned between 2021 and 2024 is set to peak at an average of 2.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) annually, according to the latest outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The 2024 cohort alone is expected to contribute 2.2 mb/d in annual supply by 2032—surpassing the 2.1 mb/d average of projects sanctioned during the 2015–2019 period.
However, the IEA warns that global exploration performance continues to underwhelm. Exploration spending averaged just $35 billion annually between 2015 and 2024, 30% lower than the previous decade. The link between oil prices and exploration activity has also weakened significantly—dropping from a strong correlation before 2015 to near zero in the past decade, largely due to the rise of U.S. light tight oil (LTO).
In 2024, only 5 billion barrels of conventional liquid resources were discovered, covering just 19% of that year’s conventional oil production, according to data from Rystad Energy. Notably, four large discoveries made up about half of that volume, including major finds in Namibia, Guyana, Mexico, and Côte d’Ivoire.
To counter production declines at mature fields, oil companies are shifting more capital and operating expenditures toward maintaining existing infrastructure. In 2024, direct field operating expenses hit their highest levels ever, approaching 90% of the 2014 peak. These funds were essential for sidetracks, well workovers, and other interventions aimed at squeezing more output from aging reservoirs.
Globally, average decline rates at mature fields remain around 6%, meaning the industry needs to bring on approximately 5 mb/d of new supply each year just to maintain current output levels. While recent investments have helped hold the line, the long-term outlook depends increasingly on targeted maintenance and strategic capital reallocation.
