BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. Maintaining current levels of global oil and gas production through 2050 will require substantial new investment, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The agency notes that without new projects, oil production would fall to 42 million barrels per day (mb/d) and natural gas to 1,600 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2035 under natural decline rates. To offset declines, continued investment in post-peak conventional fields, ramp-up and legacy projects, and unconventional oil and gas developments is essential.
The IEA estimates that by 2035, these investments could raise global output to 82 mb/d for oil and 3,600 bcm for natural gas. By 2050, production is projected to drop to 51 mb/d of oil and 2,300 bcm of gas, representing an average annual decline of around 3%.
To sustain production at today’s levels through 2050, the agency says an additional 47 mb/d of oil and 2,000 bcm of gas would need to come from yet-to-be-approved projects. Significant contributions are expected from discovered but undeveloped resources, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and Eurasia. Notable examples include multi-phase developments such as Qatar’s North Field, with the majority of discovered resources still awaiting full production.
The IEA also highlights the long lead times for new projects and exploration, noting that new licenses issued today would likely only contribute to production in the 2040s. To maintain current output, the world would need to discover roughly 10 billion barrels of oil and 1 trillion cubic meters of gas annually - slightly above recent discovery rates.
