BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 16. The International Forum held in Ashgabat to mark the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s neutrality has become a clear indicator of an important shift in the regional agenda: the space between Central Asia and the Caspian Sea is decisively moving from declarations of stability to the practical implementation of infrastructure and energy projects. A significant role in shaping this new logic is played by the consistent policy of President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, focused on developing transport, energy, and logistical connectivity. As a result, the region is rapidly becoming a hotbed of practical solutions, where the name of the game is no longer good intentions but the knack for ensuring smooth transit, energy security, and sustainable pathways.
This approach is also evident in the strategic dialogue between Russia and Türkiye on the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, in the deepening gas cooperation between Iran and Turkmenistan, and in the plans of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to expand their transit potential. All these initiatives share a common vector: the pursuit of energy independence and the formation of sustainable transport corridors amid the fragmentation of traditional trade routes.
Against this backdrop, it becomes clear that without Azerbaijan, these projects can't get off the ground. The country’s geographical position and the infrastructure already in place have turned Baku from a participant into a central distribution hub. Leaving Azerbaijan out of transit and energy plans will either make them economically inefficient or deprive them of strategic meaning, especially given the country’s critical importance for cargo transit between Central Asia, Türkiye and Europe.
Today, two major corridors serve as the backbone of regional integration: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). It is precisely at their intersection that Azerbaijan’s role becomes system-forming. In the context of the erosion of international law and disruptions in global supply chains – issues explicitly raised at the Ashgabat forum – the presence of a reliable and politically stable transit hub is of decisive importance.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, actively promoted by Bishkek, aims to create a new major cargo flow from China to Europe. According to estimates, its volume could increase from the current 3–4 million tons to 15 million tons per year. Kazakhstan, in turn, views the Middle Corridor as a core logistics route and plans to raise its capacity to 10 million tons by 2027.
However, it is Azerbaijan – with the Port of Baku (Alat) on the Caspian Sea – that remains the only effective transit link ensuring the onward movement of these goods through the Caucasus toward Türkiye and Europe, bypassing Russian territory. Actual cargo turnover along the Middle Corridor through Azerbaijan’s ports has already grown by more than 80 percent over the past two years, confirming its critical role. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the developed logistics network form the key backbone of the route. This powerful transit infrastructure is the direct result of the targeted initiatives of President Ilham Aliyev aimed at transforming the country into a regional logistics hub. Without Azerbaijan’s transshipment capacities, the Middle Corridor becomes a fragmented route, while the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan project loses its significance as a European-bound direction.
It is no coincidence that a source at the Ministry of Transport of Uzbekistan stated in an interview with Trend that for Uzbekistan, as a landlocked country, cooperation with Azerbaijan is of critical importance for ensuring access to world markets. According to the source, both states attach particular importance to the development of the Middle Corridor – the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route – which provides the shortest and safest path between Asia and Europe via the Caspian Sea.
In parallel, the North-South corridor is also expanding. Although Iran and Turkmenistan are focusing on the eastern route, the western branch – Russia–Azerbaijan–Iran – remains the most well-established and cost-effective. It is this specific route that ensures the delivery of goods from Russia and Northern Europe to Iran and onward to India. Between January and October of the current year, the trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran amounted to $518.2 million, confirming the growing significance of this route. Thus, Azerbaijan does not merely participate in the INSTC but effectively guarantees its viability, while simultaneously ensuring a balance between eastern and western directions.
The northwestern direction of Iran is also gaining particular importance within the connectivity architecture. As the Governor of the Iranian province of Ardabil, Masoud Emami-Yeganeh, stated in an interview with Trend, the construction of the 270 km Ardabil-Parsabad railway line will serve as a powerful stimulus for the development of freight transportation. The Governor emphasized that the projected railway terminal in the village of Tazakend, located opposite Azerbaijan's Imishli district, will provide the province with direct access to the markets of the South Caucasus, the EAEU, and Eastern Europe.
This further confirms Baku's status as a key operator: even the internal projects of neighboring countries, such as the development of the Ardabil Free Trade and Industrial Zone, are oriented toward integration with Azerbaijani infrastructure.
Azerbaijan’s significance is not limited to logistics. The country acts as an independent guarantor of energy stability in the South Caucasus and in Türkiye. As a key gas supplier within the Southern Gas Corridor, Baku ensures diversification of supplies to Türkiye and Southern Europe. Currently, Azerbaijan supplies around 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe, while the total capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor stands at 31 billion cubic meters, with plans for further expansion.
With the strategic dance between Ankara and Moscow heating up in the nuclear arena thanks to the Akkuyu NPP project, Azerbaijan stands as a key player, keeping the energy scales balanced and stability flowing from the south. Azerbaijan is one of Türkiye’s largest gas suppliers, alongside Russia and Iran, while supplies via the TANAP pipeline reduce Ankara’s dependence on a single source. This is particularly important amid deepening Russian-Turkish cooperation in nuclear energy, where long-term technological and fuel commitments strengthen Moscow’s position. In this context, stable supplies of Azerbaijani gas serve as a counterbalance, providing Türkiye with the necessary room for maneuver in its energy policy.
An additional dimension is added by the green energy agenda. In the context of climate and water challenges actively raised by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan is promoting a project to export Caspian wind and solar energy to Europe via Georgia and an underwater cable to Romania. In December 2022, a Strategic Partnership Agreement on the development and transmission of green energy was signed in Bucharest between the governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary, creating the political and legal framework for the construction of a 1,000 MW submarine cable more than 1,100 km long. As a result, the Caspian region is gradually being integrated into the European energy market.
Special attention should also be paid to the environmental factor – the shrinking of the Caspian Sea – which is already directly affecting port infrastructure along the eastern coast. Against the backdrop of falling water levels and rising costs, Azerbaijan’s ports are becoming a key element in ensuring reliable transshipment along the Middle Corridor. In practice, the effectiveness of Central Asia’s investments in transport projects directly depends on the stable operation of Azerbaijan’s maritime and land-based capacities.
Taken together, all these factors lead to a clear conclusion: Azerbaijan today is not just one of many elements but the geographical, infrastructural, and political key to the entire regional connectivity architecture. It is precisely the consistent and long-term strategy of President Ilham Aliyev to develop transport corridors, modernize port and railway infrastructure, and strengthen energy routes that has transformed the country into a system-forming transit hub. Without this targeted policy, neither logistics nor energy projects in the region could achieve their stated goals. For Central Asian countries, this means that they need to hit the ground running to gain fast, competitive, and secure access to the markets of Europe and the Middle East, which is today effectively ensured through Azerbaijan, which under President Ilham Aliyev has become the only reliable bridge between East and West, North and South.