BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 3. The global economic outlook is showing signs of improvement, according to the latest World Economic Forum survey of chief economists, Trend reports.
In January 2024, 56 percent of world chief economists predicted a weakening global economy this year. However, the latest survey reveals a dramatic shift, with only 17 percent now expecting a decline and more than 80 percent anticipating that the global economy will strengthen or remain stable for the rest of 2024.
Recovery signs in the manufacturing sector, coupled with increased business and household confidence, suggest that the most severe risks to the near-term outlook are stabilizing. Nevertheless, as the WEF survey noted, these positive developments occur amid ongoing high uncertainty, largely due to global economic and geopolitical disparities and conflicts.
Geopolitical factors are now almost unanimously viewed (97 percent) as a source of global economic volatility this year, up from 90 percent in September 2023. With nearly half of the world's population set to vote this year, the significance of domestic political considerations is also highlighted, with 83 percent of chief economists identifying these as sources of volatility.
The most significant improvement noted in the latest survey pertains to the US economic outlook. An overwhelming majority of chief economists (97 percent) expect at least moderate growth in 2024, a substantial increase from the 59 percent recorded in January. This surge in optimism is driven by a notable rise in those forecasting strong or very strong growth, from 3 percent to 45 percent.
This positive shift aligns with encouraging economic data from early 2024. However, renewed inflation concerns and the interplay of geopolitical and domestic political factors may still impact the outlook for the rest of the year, the research added.
