BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 12. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply rose by 130,000 barrels per day (kb/d) month-on-month in November, reaching 103.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), a 230 kb/d increase compared to the same month last year, Trend reports.
This growth was primarily driven by OPEC+, with notable recoveries in output from Libya and Kazakhstan.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ supply saw a decline, mainly due to weaker Brazilian biofuels and a late-season hurricane impacting Gulf of Mexico production. The IEA forecasts global oil supply to increase by 630 kb/d year-on-year to 102.9 mb/d in 2024, with a further rise of 1.9 mb/d expected in 2025, reaching 104.8 mb/d.
Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to account for more than 70% of the supply growth in 2025, predominantly driven by increases in the Americas. OPEC+ is projected to contribute about 460 kb/d to this growth, mainly from higher NGL and condensate volumes, provided the group does not unwind its voluntary production cuts.
At the 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting in December, the group confirmed it would extend its additional voluntary production cuts of 2.2 mb/d until March 2025, with plans to gradually restore output through September 2026, depending on market conditions. If OPEC+ begins to phase out cuts in April 2025 as scheduled, the group could add an average of 460 kb/d to the market in 2025. According to the IEA's current outlook, this will result in a supply overhang of 950 kb/d next year.
