BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 10. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast downward, citing expectations of rising global inventories and shifting market dynamics, Trend reports.
According to the agency’s latest outlook, Brent is now projected to average $68 per barrel in 2025 and $61 in 2026—$6 and $7 lower, respectively, than last month’s forecast.
The price revision follows sharp declines in early April, driven by market concerns over new U.S. tariffs and plans by OPEC+ to accelerate production increases. These developments are expected to raise global oil inventories sooner than previously anticipated, placing additional downward pressure on prices.
The EIA now expects global oil inventories to begin building in the second quarter of 2025, rising by 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d), and continuing to grow at a pace of 0.7 million b/d in the second half of the year. This trend is forecast to continue through 2026.
As a result, Brent prices are projected to fall steadily over the forecast period—from an average of $76/b in the first quarter of 2025 to around $64/b by the end of the year. The buildup in inventories is being driven by increased OPEC+ output and a more modest outlook for global oil demand growth.