BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 15. Chinese exports in the first quarter of 2026 grew by 11.9% to 6.9 trillion yuan ($977.6 billion), despite U.S. tariffs and the crisis in the Middle East.
While Washington tries to raise trade barriers, official data from the General Administration of Customs of the PRC for the first quarter of 2026 shows that Beijing no longer needs its former dependence on the West.
Beijing's geopolitical strategy is quite simple: replace falling trade volumes with the U.S. with explosive growth in ASEAN and African countries. Statistics are breaking records, as trade with ASEAN grew by 15.4%, and with Africa by 23.7%. The share of "Belt and Road" initiative countries in China's total foreign trade turnover reached a historic 51.2%.
China is not just compensating for losses; it is redirecting commodity flows to where demand for its infrastructure and technological solutions is growing at double-digit rates.
Technology has become the main tool of defense against tariff wars. China is betting on high-value-added goods that are extremely difficult to replace with anything else. Exports of integrated circuits jumped by 66.6%. Demand amid global involvement in artificial intelligence allows Beijing to dictate terms despite export controls by the U.S. The share of exports of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar panels also increased by 53.3%.
China is effectively monopolizing global green energy supply chains. Even considering the conflict in the Middle East, which provoked an energy shock, Chinese industrial exports remain resilient as the world continues to depend on their production capacities. Within the framework of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the world's inclination toward high-tech industry will become even deeper, making the PRC economy less susceptible to external sanctions.
The situation balances on the brink of two scenarios. In the case of an optimistic development of events, the growth of the Chinese presence in ASEAN and Africa will persist, and technological exports based on AI and green energy will continue to grow at rates of 50–70% in individual segments. In this case, China will maintain double-digit export rates even under U.S. pressure. China, thus, successfully completes its structural reorganization, finally establishing itself in the role of a technological hub for developing economies. The growth of exports to the countries of the "Belt and Road" initiative covers any losses from trade wars with the West, and technological leadership in the field of AI and green energy forces even critics to maintain trade ties with Beijing.
The pessimistic scenario shows that the geopolitical pressure of the West on the countries of the Global South is intensifying, forcing them to choose a side. A slowdown in the global economy and instability in developing regions could reduce the compensating effect, and trade restrictions will strengthen market fragmentation. Then export growth may fall into the 3–5% range with increased volatility.
Data for the first quarter of 2026 so far speaks in favor of the first scenario. But the March slowdown serves as a reminder that geopolitics can still strike. Chinese trade is becoming less West-centric and more technological, but its stability now increasingly depends not on one market, but on the balance of several rapidly changing regions at once.