BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 19
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Total energy supply falls to 550 exajoules (EJ) in 2030, 7 percent lower than in 2020, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“This occurs despite significant increases in the global population and economy because of a fall in energy intensity (the amount of energy used to generate a unit of GDP). Energy intensity falls by 4 percent on average each year between 2020 and 2030. This is achieved through a combination of electrification, a push to pursue all energy and materials efficiency opportunities, behavioral changes that reduce demand for energy services, and a major shift away from the traditional use of bioenergy,” reads the IEA report,” IEA report says.
This level of improvement in energy intensity is much greater than has been achieved in recent years: between 2010 and 2020, average annual energy intensity fell by less then 2 percent each year, according to the agency.
“After 2030, continuing electrification of end‐use sectors helps to reduce energy intensity further, but the emphasis on maximising energy efficiency improvements in the years up to 2030 limits the available opportunities in later years. At the same time, increasing production of new fuels, such as advanced biofuels, hydrogen and synthetic fuels, tends to push up energy use. As a result, the rate of decline in energy intensity between 2030 and 2050 slows to 2.7% per year. With continued economic and population growth, this means that total energy supply falls slightly between 2030 and 2040 but then remains broadly flat to 2050. Total energy supply in 2050 in the NZE is close to the level in 2010, despite a global population that is nearly 3 billion people higher and a global economy that is over three‐times larger,” reads the report.
The energy mix in 2050 in the net-zero emission (NZE) scenario is much more diverse than today.
“In 2020, oil provided 30 percent of total energy supply, while coal supplied 26 percent and natural gas 23 percent. In 2050, renewables provide two‐thirds of energy use, split between bioenergy, wind, solar, hydroelectricity and geothermal. There is also a large increase in energy supply from nuclear power, which nearly doubles between 2020 and 2050. There are large reductions in the use of fossil fuels in the NZE. As a share of total energy supply, they fall from 80 percent in 2020 to just over 20 percent in 2050. However, their use does not fall to zero in 2050: significant amounts are still used in producing non‐energy goods, in plants with CCUS, and in sectors where emissions are especially hard to abate such as heavy industry and long‐distance transport. All remaining emissions in 2050 are offset by negative emissions elsewhere (Box 2.2). Coal use falls from 5 250 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2020 to 2 500 Mtce in 2030 and to less than 600 Mtce in 2050 – an average annual decline of 7 percent each year from 2020 to 2050,” said the IEA.
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