BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The final-energy demand will, in fact, peak in 2034, and at a level only 4 percent higher than that of today, Trend reports with reference to DNV GL, a Norway-based company.
“Thereafter, energy demand will gradually drift downwards to 2050, returning to the same level as it is today. Peak final-energy demand will occur at different times in the various world regions; indeed, for the regions with lowest GDP per capita, demand will not peak during our forecast period. Furthermore, demand will not peak uniformly across the various demand sectors. The strongest growth will occur in the buildings sector, where significantly more residential and commercial floor area will be available to serve more prosperous populations. Consequently, buildings will collectively consume 24 percent more energy in 2050 than in 2018, its share in global energy use growing from 29 percent to 35 percent. In the manufacturing sector, substantial energy-efficiency gains, including increased recycling, will outpace the growth in demand for goods, such that manufacturing energy use will peak in the 2030s,” DNV GL said in its latest report.
The company believes that although transport services will typically double (or more) over the forecast period, energy use will reduce.
“The most important reason is the significant efficiency improvement associated with the switch from internal combustion engine to battery-electric propulsion. Roughly half of the world’s fleet of passenger vehicles will be electric by 2040. Efficiency gains in the road-transport subsector will more than counterbalance the increases in energy demand in aviation and rail. This trend will also be helped by the maritime sector experiencing dramatic efficiency gains that will strongly reduce energy use, despite a substantial growth in the world fleet.”
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