BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct. 12
By Klavdiya Romakayeva - Trend:
Fitch also predicts that Uzbekistan's public debt will reach 36 percent of GDP, up from 28.6 percent in 2019, Trend reports referring to the press service of Fitch Ratings.
Fitch Ratings international rating agency has confirmed the long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) for liabilities in foreign and national currencies at BB- for Uzbekistan,
In addition, the 'B' Short-term IDRs were affirmed. All ratings have a stable outlook. The country ceiling has been set at "BB-".
According to Fitch, Uzbekistan will be one of the few sovereign states that will manage to avoid an economic downturn in 2020. After GDP growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter, it is expected that economic growth will be 0.5 percent in 2020. Under Fitch's base scenario, Uzbekistan's GDP growth will accelerate to 5 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022. Experts attribute this to fiscal policies that support investment and consumption, as well as the recovery of the country's main trading partners.
Among the risks for 2021-2022, the agency names uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and the possibility of re-introducing stricter COVID-19 containment measures in Uzbekistan or its trading partners.
Prudent monetary policy and a moderate depreciation of the exchange rate will lead to a gradual decrease in inflation from 13.4 percent in 2020 to 9.8 percent in 2022.
Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating (including rating outlook) could be improved if it achieves high rates of economic growth while ensuring macroeconomic stability, significant improvements in governance standards such as rule of law, public opinion, and accountability, quality of regulation, and control of corruption, as well as a significant increase in fiscal and external reserves of public finance.
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