BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 31. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Azerbaijan's real GDP growth rate to increase from $72.4 billion in 2023 to $75.6 billion in 2024, Trend reports.
The IMF forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate for next year at $77 billion.
According to the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia report, Azerbaijan's real GDP growth is projected to rise to 3.2 percent in 2024, a significant increase from the 1.1 percent recorded in 2023. However, growth is expected to moderate to 2.5 percent in 2025.
The oil sector is anticipated to contract by 0.5 percent during 2024-2025, following a decline of 4.2 percent in 2023. In contrast, the non-oil sector is set for a robust growth of 4.8 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025, compared to 3.7 percent in 2023.
The IMF notes that overall growth among oil exporters in the Caucasus and Central Asia will decelerate from 3.9 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent in 2024, largely due to stagnation in oil production growth in Kazakhstan.
“The region's GDP will reach 3.9 percent in 2025, driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan,” the report projects.
To note, the World Bank (WB) forecasts economic growth for Azerbaijan at 3.2 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year. Not only WB, but also the Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for Azerbaijan's GDP growth rate in 2024 from 1.2 percent in its April report to 2.7 percent in its September report. The bank also improved its forecast for 2025 from 1.6 percent in April to 2.6 percent in September.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance estimates that the country's GDP will reach 129.2 billion manat ($76 billion) by the end of 2025.