BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. Tajikistan increased wheat imports in the first half of 2026 as domestic production declined, with Kazakhstan remaining the country's sole supplier of imported wheat.
The figures were released by Tajikistan's Antimonopoly Service.
According to the agency, Tajikistan imported 660,800 metric tons of wheat worth approximately $171 million in January–June 2026, representing a 7.7% increase compared with the same period last year.
All imported wheat originated from Kazakhstan, while the average import price rose to $259 per metric ton, up $25 from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, domestic wheat production fell 13.3% year on year to 510,000 metric tons during the reporting period.
The country also increased flour imports by 45.2% to 35,400 metric tons. Kazakhstan accounted for about 95% of total flour imports.
Despite the higher level of imports, domestic flour production expanded 31.6% year on year to 399,400 metric tons.
According to local experts, the increase in grain and flour imports reflects rising domestic demand driven by population growth. Official statistics show that Tajikistan's population increased by nearly 64% between 2000 and 2024.
Trend's analysis shows that Tajikistan's dependence on imported wheat continued to deepen in the first half of 2026 as domestic production declined faster than import volumes increased. The 13.3% drop in wheat harvests, coupled with a 7.7% rise in imports, underscores the country's growing reliance on external supplies to meet domestic demand.
Trend's calculations show that imported wheat exceeded domestic production by approximately 150,800 metric tons, with imports accounting for about 56% of the combined volume of imported and domestically produced wheat during the reporting period. Kazakhstan also reinforced its position as Tajikistan's dominant grain supplier, providing 100% of wheat imports and around 95% of flour imports.
In Trend's assessment, the simultaneous increase in flour production and imports suggests that domestic milling capacity continues to expand, but not sufficiently to offset lower wheat harvests. With population growth continuing to drive food demand, Tajikistan is likely to remain heavily dependent on grain imports unless domestic agricultural productivity improves.
