BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Global oil supply growth is projected to increase by 660,000 b/d in 2024, says the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
According to the outlook, in September, global oil supply experienced a significant decline, dropping by 640,000 b/d to 102.8 mb/d. The reduction, which marks a year-on-year increase of only 220,000 b/d, was driven primarily by Libya’s domestic political crisis, leading to crude production shut-ins, and compounded by maintenance-related field closures in Norway and Canada as well as hurricane activity along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Libya’s oil output was slashed by more than 50 percent from its pre-crisis levels in September. However, a swift resolution to the political gridlock in early October has allowed production to rebound, with loadings ramping up this month. Despite the recent recovery, concerns over supply risks now focus on escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) played a key role in stabilizing supply, as the group’s crude production fell by over 500,000 b/d in September. The decline is expected to help ease overproduction concerns, potentially facilitating the unwinding of production cuts planned for December.
The IEA’s report forecasts the call on OPEC+ crude oil will average 41.5 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 40.8 mb/d in 2025, slightly adjusted from September figures. Non-OPEC+ countries saw their output drop by around 110,000 b/d in September, with increases from Brazil, China, and the UK failing to counterbalance lower production in Norway and Canada.
Looking ahead, global oil supply growth is projected to increase by 660,000 b/d in 2024, reaching 102.9 mb/d. This forecast is slightly lower than the previous month's outlook, with non-OPEC+ production, particularly from the Americas, expected to drive growth. However, OPEC+ output is projected to contract by 820,000 b/d next year.
Assuming OPEC+ maintains its voluntary curbs, supply growth is forecast to rise by 2 mb/d in 2025, reaching a total of 105 mb/d. However, with geopolitical tensions mounting, market volatility remains a persistent threat.