BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 25. North Sea oil loadings are expected to rise by 40,000 b/d month-on-month to 1.4 mb/d in December, according to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
This increase is primarily driven by the return of volumes from the Johan Sverdrup and Troll fields, which are expected to offset losses in other grades, the agency explains.
Year-on-year, the loading volumes remain flat, as gains from Sverdrup and Ekofisk production offset declines in Forties and Oseberg grades. The UK’s oil supply saw a recovery in September, rising by 60,000 b/d to 620,000 b/d following a significant drop in August due to peak summer maintenance. However, revisions to earlier data show a reduction of 70,000 b/d for these months, with part of the decrease attributed to a regulatory reporting error at the St. Fergus terminal. As a result, UK output for 2024 is expected to fall by 50,000 b/d to 680,000 b/d, with a slight increase to 690,000 b/d in 2025.
In Norway, production in September dropped by 250,000 b/d to 1.7 mb/d, reflecting seasonal maintenance activity. This was a greater decline than previously forecast, with outages in gas facilities also impacting natural gas liquids (NGL) output. However, production rebounded in October, rising by 240,000 b/d, and is expected to continue increasing through the fourth quarter, particularly with the startup of the Johan Castberg project.
Preliminary January loadings from the new project are expected to reach 140,000 b/d, higher than previously anticipated, prompting a 30,000 b/d upward revision for 2025 growth projections. Overall, while production will experience a slight decline of 20,000 b/d this year, full-year 2025 growth is now forecast to reach 170,000 b/d, bringing total output to 2.2 mb/d.
