BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 14. Global oil supply fell sharply in January, declining by 950,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 102.7 million b/d, as severe winter weather in North America compounded production cuts in Nigeria and Libya, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
Non-OPEC+ output dropped by 690,000 b/d, reaching 53.1 million b/d, largely due to freezing temperatures in the United States that shut in over 500,000 b/d of production. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production fell by 260,000 b/d to 49.6 million b/d, with declines in the UAE, Iraq, and African producers outweighing increased output from Kazakhstan.
Among OPEC+ members, Russia and Iran experienced mixed production trends in January. Russian supply increased by 100,000 b/d, while Iranian output fell by the same amount. Kazakhstan saw a boost in production as its Tengiz expansion project added 260,000 b/d, contributing an additional 100,000 b/d to the country’s overall output for the month. The expansion highlights the delicate balance OPEC+ members must maintain between complying with agreed production targets and ensuring essential state revenue.
Despite the January decline, global oil supply remained 1.9 million b/d higher than a year ago, supported by production increases in the United States, Canada, and Guyana. Looking ahead to 2025, the IEA projects global supply to rise by 1.6 million b/d, reaching 104.5 million b/d, even without OPEC+ reversing its voluntary cuts.
Most of the supply growth in 2025 is expected to come from non-OPEC+ producers, which will contribute 1.4 million b/d of the total increase. In contrast, OPEC+ is forecast to post a modest gain of 140,000 b/d, with the latest estimates revised downward by 170,000 b/d due to shifting production trends in Russia, Iran, and the UAE.
The composition of supply growth is also set to change compared to 2024, when natural gas liquids and biofuels accounted for all net supply gains. In 2025, crude oil and condensates will drive over 70% of the expected increase. Last year, OPEC+ crude supply reductions led to a 120,000 b/d decline in refinery crude input, tightening the global crude market.