BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 11. Global oil supply is forecast to expand steadily over the next two and a half decades, despite economic, political, and investment challenges, according to the latest long-term supply outlook released by OPEC, Trend reports.
The report projects that total world liquids supply will grow from 102.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024 to 123.0 mb/d by 2050 - a 20.6 mb/d increase.
The data reveals that while market fundamentals remain supportive and demand stays healthy relative to historical averages, the composition of supply growth is set to evolve. Notably, the bulk of this increase will come from OPEC and its partners within the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), whose collective liquids output is expected to climb by 15.0 mb/d to reach 64.1 mb/d by 2050.
The United States, currently the world’s largest oil producer, will see its liquids supply rise modestly from 21.8 mb/d in 2024 to a peak of 23.1 mb/d by 2030 before gradually declining to 19.6 mb/d by 2050. Tight oil, which makes up a significant share of U.S. output, is set to plateau and then shrink — a reflection of dwindling prime shale acreage and a strategic industry shift toward capital discipline over aggressive expansion.
Canada, driven in part by its oil sands output, will see steady growth from 5.9 mb/d in 2024 to 7.7 mb/d in 2050, a 1.8 mb/d increase. Meanwhile, Latin America — bolstered by Brazil and Argentina — is forecast to add 4.0 mb/d to its liquids production, one of the largest regional increases outside OPEC’s core group.
The report emphasizes that while non-DoC supply growth remains robust in the short and medium term, it is clearly decelerating. From 53.3 mb/d in 2024, non-DoC liquids supply is projected to hover around 60 mb/d throughout the 2030s and 2040s before slightly dipping to 58.9 mb/d by 2050.
This is largely attributed to the expected peak and plateau of U.S. liquids supply in the early 2030s, with other non-OPEC producers like Brazil, Canada, and select African and Latin American nations providing limited incremental growth thereafter.
OPEC reaffirmed that it and its partners in the DoC will continue efforts to maintain market stability, asserting that the projected 15.0 mb/d growth in DoC liquids supply by 2050 underpins their central role in meeting rising global demand. The group’s share of total global liquids output will therefore increase from 49.1 mb/d in 2024 to 64.1 mb/d in 2050, reinforcing OPEC’s long-term relevance.
